https://j.people.com.cn/n3/2026/0716/c95952-20478334.html

According to Professor Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University—an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences—the hydrogen energy industry has already overcome the ‘Valley of Death.’ The next five years will be a period of opportunity for development. After 2030, once renewable energy generation exceeds 50% of total societal electricity consumption, the hydrogen energy sector is expected to enter a phase of explosive growth. Between 2050 and 2060, as China progressively achieves its carbon neutrality goals, green hydrogen could account for 10–15% of final energy consumption.

In recent years, strengthened policy support has provided powerful momentum for the development of the hydrogen energy industry.

• The “Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021–2035)” positioned hydrogen energy as a key component of the future national energy system.
• The “Energy Law” stipulated that “the state shall actively and steadily promote the development and utilization of hydrogen energy and foster the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry.”
• The outline for the “15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030)” designated hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy as future industries to be developed proactively.
• In March of this year, a comprehensive hydrogen energy utilization demonstration project was launched, explicitly setting a target to reduce the average end-user price of hydrogen to below 25 yuan per kilogram by 2030.

Thanks to years of effort, China now ranks first globally in terms of the number of fuel cell vehicles in operation and the number of hydrogen refueling stations.

• By the end of 2025, the cumulative number of fuel cell vehicles deployed had reached 39,000, and more than 590 hydrogen refueling stations had been established.
• The cost of fuel cell systems has dropped from an initial 10,000 yuan per kilowatt (kW) to approximately 3,000 yuan.

As costs decline, the commercial value of hydrogen energy is gradually becoming apparent. According to Zu Sijie, Vice President and Chief Engineer of SAIC Motor Corporation, the measured hydrogen consumption of a 49-ton hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck has fallen to 8.5 kilograms per 100 kilometers, while the average hydrogen refueling price has dropped to 30.42 yuan per kilogram. When combined with policy support—such as vehicle purchase subsidies and highway toll reductions—fuel cell vehicles are becoming competitive against their diesel counterparts in terms of total lifecycle operating costs in sectors like high-speed long-haul transport and cold-chain logistics.

According to Zhang Tianyu, Chairman of Weishi Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: if the retail price of hydrogen drops to 25 yuan per kilogram, the use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will form a complete commercial closed-loop. If it falls further to 12–14 yuan, large-scale hydrogen energy utilization in the chemical and power generation sectors will also begin in earnest.

Technological breakthroughs are a key factor driving cost reductions. Lu Jian, Chair Professor at the City University of Hong Kong, notes, “The reason hydrogen energy prices remain high is due to both high electricity costs and the expense of catalysts.” The “Turing catalyst” developed by Professor Lu’s research team can reduce the catalyst cost per unit volume required for hydrogen production by 70% compared to commercially available platinum-carbon catalysts. Professor Ouyang predicts, “Breakthroughs in the mass production of wide-temperature-range proton exchange membranes and high-output stacks are paving the way. Between 2025 and 2030, the development of a supply chain covering hydrogen production, storage, transport, and refueling will drive multi-sector applications, ushering in a period of explosive growth for green hydrogen energy.”

Despite the bright outlook, the hydrogen energy industry still faces numerous challenges. According to the Deputy Governor, factors such as regional imbalances between hydrogen supply and demand, delays in developing hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and a lack of standardized regulations for cross-regional transport and storage continue to constrain the industry’s scaling.

Pan Feng, President of Forvia Hydrogen Energy China, stated, “The number of hydrogen stations is extremely low compared to gasoline stations; the fact that stations capable of handling 70-megapascal pressure account for less than 10% of the national total is hindering the adoption of hydrogen-powered passenger vehicles. Furthermore, there is an urgent need to establish national standards for low-cost storage and transport methods, such as container-based hydrogen transport. For the hydrogen energy industry to develop further, efforts must be deepened in areas including safety, economic viability, sustainability, and innovation.”