http://english.cas.cn/newsroom/research-news/202603/t20260313_1152679.shtml

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147752

Researchers from the CAS Aerospace Information Research Institute, in collaboration with other institutions, have assessed the potential for global solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment Operating at a fine-grained one-kilometer resolution, their framework evaluates both the technical and economic feasibility of solar PV projects.

The team integrated multi-source datasets, including solar resources, terrain, land cover, protected areas, and infrastructure. The framework combines pixel-level remote sensing data with relevant economic indicators, enabling more precise and spatially explicit assessments of solar PV opportunities across regions and countries.

While solar PV has expanded rapidly worldwide, many sun-rich areas face challenges such as low electricity prices, limited grid access, and high upfront costs. To address these barriers, the researchers defined economically feasible areas using clear criteria—most notably an investment payback period of 15 years or less, combined with practical accessibility constraints related to proximity to settlements and roads.

The analysis estimates that the global technical potential for PV could reach 12,956.93 PWh per year, with an economic potential of 4,990.20 PWh per year—more than 170 times the current global electricity demand. The study also found that PV affordability has improved significantly over the past decade: the share of land meeting the economic payback criterion rose from approximately 24.7% in 2013 to 75.1% in 2023, driven by declining PV technology costs.

Further analysis revealed that economic factors—such as installation costs and electricity prices—exert a stronger influence on PV affordability than solar resource availability. This highlights that expanding viable PV deployment requires more than identifying sun-rich locations; it also depends on financing conditions, market policies, and cost trends that determine a project’s real-world feasibility.

To validate their findings, the team compared their results with a global database of 93,257 existing PV plants. The validation showed that nearly 99% of observed PV installations fall within the study’s defined affordable areas, confirming the framework’s accuracy and relevance to current PV deployment practices.

The researchers note that the framework provides a scalable, clear tool for national and regional energy planning, helping policymakers and stakeholders identify where solar PV can be built and where it is economically viable under consistent assumptions.