The World Energy Blue Paper: World Energy Development Report (2022) was released on November 6. According to the data in the Blue Book, China’s installed capacity of renewable energy power generation has already exceeded 1 billion kW, and it has leapfrogged to the top of the world in terms of installed capacity of offshore wind power generation. China’s coal-fired power generation installed capacity could peak at 1.26 billion kW.
The Blue Paper projected that the growth rate of global electricity demand will slow in 23-24, and that renewable energy supply will account for more than 32% of total global electricity supply in 24 years. Of this, most of the increase in electricity supply in 21-24 is expected to come from China, with the increase accounting for about half of the global total.
China’s electricity demand growth rate is currently well above the global average. Some highly developed emerging industries are characterized by high energy consumption and 24-hour continuous operation. For example, new types of infrastructure such as 5G base stations and data centers consume a lot of electricity, the semiconductor industry is developing vigorously, and the steel industry is changing its model, all of which are driving the growth of electricity consumption in society as a whole. In response to the goals of carbon dioxide emissions peak-out and carbon neutrality, the production and manufacturing process of photovoltaic components is also characterized by high energy consumption. The Blue Paper predicts that China’s emerging industries will account for about 20% of society’s total electricity consumption in 25 years.
Renewable energy generation in China is steadily increasing. According to the data, China’s installed renewable energy capacity as of the end of 2009 was 1.063 billion kW, accounting for 44.8% of total installed power generation capacity. In 2009, China’s renewable energy generation was 2.48 trillion kWh, accounting for 29.8% of the country’s total electricity consumption. Nuclear power generation has also maintained a favorable growth trend. The number of nuclear reactors in operation nationwide increased by 8.2% year-on-year, while installed capacity grew by 7.1%.
Energy storage technology is gradually maturing and moving toward applications. Clean energy and nuclear power plants are developing at an accelerated pace. The Blue Paper predicted that coal-fired power generation will remain the mainstay of China’s power structure until 25 years, but that its installed capacity could peak at 1.26 billion kW by 30 years. Coal-fired power generation will then become the energy source for emergency supply guarantees through the next 60 years. Promoting a stable and orderly reduction of coal-fired power generation is positive for the stability of China’s power system and the reduction of social and economic risks.
